Derby picture as clear as mud – but can the Dante Stakes provide decent clues?

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The unpredictability of our sport is the one and only reason we can ever get to place a bet, and the difficulty of finding winners is why we can (occasionally) get some decent odds, but there are also days when you look at the result and just scratch your head with nothing making the blindest bit of sense – and Saturday was one of those days for me. As well as looking at the form book myself I freely admit that I also listened to a certain well-known organisation (Timeform to be precise), who simply reaffirmed that neither Wedding Vow (Oaks trail) or Christophermarlowe (Derby trail) could possibly get beaten, and had a bet accordingly. The rest, as they say is history, with both being sent off at silly prices (8/11 and 2/5), and both managing no better than well beaten thirds – put in their places by two lengths and three and a quarter lengths respectively, but in small fields with absolutely no obvious excuses except perhaps the softer ground. Neither will carry my money for the classics after those performances and I am far too busy licking my wounds to tell you the latest prices, though that will hopefully all change by the weekend.

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Trainer John Gosden – well reprinted in the Dante Stakes

York take centre stage this week with some high quality racing each and every day from Wednesday through to Friday, but for the purposes of this article, I am only interested in talking about the Classic trials. On Wednesday we have the Musidora Stakes but whether we learn a great deal is open to question. Aiden O’Brien has Dubai Mile winner Together Forever entered and she does look the form choice but I have to add the caveat that she has been entered elsewhere in recent weeks which makes me wonder if all has not been perfect as they look to bring her back to the track? As for the others in the field, some arrive with tall reputations (Crystal Zvezda, Star Of Seville, to name but two), but neither have the form in the book as yet to justify a Group One place let alone a win, though an electrifying win for anyone could soon change all that.

On Thursday afternoon we have the littler matter of the Dante Stakes – the number one recognised Derby trial, and with an amazing potential line up. Elm Park is all set t make his comeback her having missed the 2000 Guineas because of the firmer ground, but he won’t find this a cakewalk with John F Kennedy looking to redeem his sky-high reputation. The World and his wife seemed to know he was something special before his debut at Leopardstown but tat didn’t stop him losing anyway, though he did pick up his maiden and then the Group Three John Deere Juvenile before being put away for the winter to mature and strengthen. Returning to action at Leopardstown he was a shock last of three (and well beaten at that), and although here are murmurings of missed gallops and minor issues, that may well be the Coolmore PR machine on a damage limitation exercise? Naturally, there are other possible contenders, with John Gosden having the luxury of either Jack Hobbs or Golden Horn (both currently unbeaten), though after last weekend’s results, I won’t be rushing in to back anyone of them at a short price – will you?

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