Germany are odds-on across the board at a top priced 10/11 to win tonight’s semi-final (7.45pm KO,BBC1) in normal time, but it’s the Italians that make most appeal from a betting perspective at 12/5 in the draw/no bet market.
It’s a fascinating clash given that Germany boast the best attack at Euro 2012 with 9 goals scored, and Italy the second best defence with just two goals conceded.
But as far as the stats are concerned it’s the Italians who hold the upper hand, and that makes the Germans worth taking on in my book at odds-on.
The two sides have met 30 times in their history, with Italy leading by 14 wins to seven, with nine draws completing the record.
However when it comes to competitive games the Azzurri have never lost (3 wins, 4 draws) and are also unbeaten in their last 5 games against Germany – winning three and drawing twice.
Throw in the fact they have also failed to make it to the finals only in two of the 10 semi-final games they’ve played at major tournaments, and you can see why they are value at 12/5 in the draw/no bet market with BetVictor and Blue Square.
They also have a certain Andrea Pirlo in midfield who has been in irresistible form.
The 33-year-old completed 117 passes on Sunday against England, more than the combined tally of the Three Lions’ four starting midfielders.
If Germany can’t find a way to snuff him out then I can see him pulling the strings and creating plenty of chances for the likes of Mario Balotelli and Antonio Cassano.
Balotelli, who missed a hatful of chances against England, is a 10/1 chance to net first with BetVictor and looks worth a small punt at those odds.