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Leicester tips and previews

Posted on by Dave Metcalf

12/1 Belinsky handicapped to strike
Belinksy has shaped as if coming back to form and and looks handicapped to strike at a tasty 12/1 in the 3.00 at Leicester.
The gelding has failed to score since May 2010 when trained by Nigel Tinkler, but that win came off a mark of 70 and a string of runs where he has failed to trouble the judge have seen him drop to a rating of just 59.

That gives him a huge chance from a handicapping perspective, and he has shown enough sparkle in his last two runs to suggest that he could be ready to go in again at a nice price.

The first of those runs came at York (off a mark of 63), where he raced prominently for much of the 6f journey before being unable to find any extra inside the last and weakened to finish 5th of 11 to Toby Tyler.

Although beaten just over 7 lengths he was not knocked about once his chance had gone and ran better than the result suggests.

The form of that race looks solid in the context of this contest as the winner has gone on to finish a solid fourth in a better race at Pontefract, the runner-up Hotham has subsequently won at Thirsk, and the fourth home Green Park has won since under a big weight at Musselburgh where he beat the bang in form Blown It.

Belisnky then again caught the eye when showing good early pace to finish sixth of 12 to Kings ‘N Dreams at Haydock on his latest start – once again being unable to find any extra close home to be beaten 3 3/4 lengths.

To me he has shown enough in those last two efforts to suggest that he can take advantage of his lowest ever career rating, and with Dale swift taking another 3lb off his back he must surely go well.

His rookie trainer Mark Campion has made a good start to his career, saddling webbow to win a big pot at Glorious Goodwood and having three others placed from just 10 runners.

He looks to be plotting up Belinsky to land a punt, and I had him priced up at no bigger than 8s for this.

Not many bookmakers have priced up yet, but bet365 and Victor Chandler go 12/1 (BOG) and that looks terrific each-way value.

Recommended bet: 3pts each-way Belinsky (12/1 bet365, Victor Chandler – BOG)

 

Pond Life worth a punt at 4/1
Pond Life is of major interest at 4/1 on his eagerly awaited handicap debut in the 5.40 at Leicester today.

Amy Weaver’s colt has shown distinct promise in three maiden runs, none more so than on his latest start when an eye-catching seventh behind Compton over 6f at Windsor.

The son of Teofilo was unable to go the early pace that day, but made good late headway from the rear and kept on well inside the last.

Although beaten 7 1/2 lengths he was not knocked about, and the form of the contest is working out well.

The winner has gone on to finish runner-up to George Margarson’s highly thought of Rebellios Guest, the runner-up Rex Imperator has sluiced up at Nottingham in the style of an above average performer, the fourth home Storming Bernard went on to chase home Rugged Cross in the Convivial at York last week, and the fifth Miss Lahar has won and also been placed in a Group 3 at Ascot behind Angels Will Fall.

That is rock solid form in the contest of this race, and I am convinced that there is plenty more improvement to come from Pond Life now that he is upped in trip to a mile.

The way he has been shaping suggests that it is what he has been crying out for, and from an opening mark of 62 he could be thrown in if that’s the case.

With the in-form Hayley Turner onboard he must take all the beating, and at 4/1 looks a solid bet.

Recommended bet: 4pts win Pond Life (4/1 bet365 – BOG)


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