Hard to see how I can ignore the Ayr Gold Cup, one of the biggest betting races of the Autumn and a fiendish puzzle with the draw and the six furlongs meaning luck with undoubtedly play a part.
Last weeks stats went tits up to be fair, but we soldier on regardless – nothing finds every winner but we have hit a 25/1 shot playing this way and that won’t be the last of them.
Looking back at the last 15 years and the following facts rear their ugly heads and will be the basis of my calculations: No winner priced bigger than 28/1 at the off, 14 finished in the first 12 last time out, 14 were aged six or younger, 14 were rated 89 or higher, 14 were rated 109 or lower, 14 had raced a minimum of four times this season, and all 15 had last raced within 60 days.
Add all these together and you cut the original field down to a more manageable six (for those interested, they are Two Tribes, Aramram, Purosangue, Flash Harry, Run Boy Run, and Jubilee Walk), but I need to pick one of them, and hopefully the right one! Purosangue is trained by Andrew Badling who has had 12 winners in the last fortnight, and who has won this twice since 2013 with Highland Colori (20/1) that year and Donjuan Triumphant (13/2) in 2017, and better still, the horse has won off a mark of 104 in Listed company, albeit it back in 2023, suggesting his current rating of 96 is not one he can’t handle.
He has been out of sorts recently hence a tumbling down the handicap, Oisin Murphy takes the ride, first -time cheekpieces are applied, and if they can get him back to his best, the 20/1 or so looks sorely tempting as an each way price.
Daily Sport Recommended Bet 1/2pt Each Way Purosangue 3.35pm Ayr 9/1 most bookmakers