The Scottish National deserves a look if only because it is so competitive, but I thought that about the Aintree National and we all know the favourite won that with ease.
Looking back at the last 15 years and we have seen winners priced as short as 4/1 and as long as 40/1, so the betting isn’t much of a guide. 12 of the 13 winners who finished their previous race came home in the first six, 42 who pulled up on their last start have tried to win here and none have been successful, 14 of the 15 winners were aged seven to 11 inclusive, and 14 were officially rated 134 to 146 inclusive, a remarkably tight banding considering the race.
None had raced in the last seven days, but 14 had raced in the last 60 days, and all had run between three and six times this season.
Using those as a guide I can get the field down to an easier to handle six, though I confess I have kept Montregard in that list as 63 days since his last run seems an arbitrary cut off.
I still have a sneaking suspicion Tom Lacey’s charge will go well at a price but the stats come down on the side of Isaac Des Obeaux.
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won this twice and placed with one other, and he has two in here (Quebecois is the other), but jockey Sam Twiston-Davies tips the scales for me having won it twice and placed on two others.
As for the horse, he has won two of his four starts over fences since wind surgery including the Midlands National at Uttoxeter over even further in mid- March, and if that race hasn’t taken too much out of him, the added 7lb from the handicapper may not be enough to stop him, though each way still seems the sensible call.
Daily Sport Recommended Bet 1/2pt Each Way Isaac Des Obeaux 3.35pm Ayr 11/1 bet365 and William Hill