You will see my three best bets elsewhere, but as it is the one and only Cheltenham Festival, every race deserves at least a passing mention!
2.40pm – The early betting suggests the bookmakers are running scared of J P McManus with his pairing of Saratoga and Manlaga vying for favouritism before the final declarations were out, but sorry JP, much as you are a breath of fresh air for the sport, I have other ideas. A four-year-olds handicap at the Cheltenham Festival seems to invite a horse hiding his r her light under a bushel until the day, but that is something we cannot predict and I can only work with the facts in front of me. J J Slevin has ridden the winner of this race twice from five rides, while Joseph O’Brien has a 25% success rate (33% placed), and they team up with Glen to Glen, who got off the mark last time out at Cork and at 10/1 or so, he looks sensible each way material.
Glen Glen each way 9/1 bet365
3.20pm – Either J P McManus has put together a few tasty multiples or the bookmakers are trying to make sure he doesn’t want to, with his horses filling the first two in the early betting for the Ultima Chase, just as they did for the previous contest. Once again I am trying a combination of past winners attributes plus a final decision based on the form book and my own thoughts, and in this case that leads to a total outsider, so bets should be kept pretty small accordingly. Johnnywho appears to be the forgotten McManus horse, but the nine-year-old represents Jonjo and A J O’Neill who have an excellent record in this race, while Richie McLernon rides whose record isn’t too shabby either. Add recent wind surgery and first-time cheekpieces and I would not be the slightest bit surprised to see him gambled on come race day, and at 14/1 or so he could yet run into the places at his peak.
Johnnywho each way 12/1 bet365 and William Hill
4.40pm – The Class One Sun Racing Plate Handicap Chase is a conundrum in itself and if we can find a horse to hit the top four home I will be a very happy man. I always find it slightly embarrassing when I find a horse at a massive price as it makes me feel I have missed something, but you should never change your mind (how awkward would that be if the horse wins), so Midnight It Is – it is. Gavin Cromwell’s 10 year old is the only one who comes through all my filters for the race (before the final one I had a shortlist of five which was pretty decent for a race this competitive), though I will be the first to admit he needs a step forward to get competitive after a seventh last time out off 3lb lower at Fairyhouse. That was a decent race, but I am hoping the step up in trip for the first time in years may help him recapture his best form, which would make him a danger to all.
Midnight It Is each way 25/1 bet365
5.20pm – there is no logical reason whatsoever who I should like a three and three quarter mile novice handicap chase any more than pulling my own teeth out, but for some reason I really enjoy looking at this race – though that does not mean I find the winner as often as I would like. Backmersackme had a list of possible races at he festival so it is clearly significant that connections have decided to aim him here, but he had to be pretty hard ridden to score at Leopardstown last time out and races off a mark 8lb higher today. He is expected to improve for this stamina test, but so should Newton Tornado who represents Rebecca Curtis who has a decent record in this race with two winners from eight attempts in recent years. An easy winner at Doncaster last time out he has also gone up 8lb for his sins, but the fact that he has won over three miles on heavy ground before tips the balance for me ahead of this stamina sapping contest.
Newton Tornado each way 11/2 bet365, William Hill, and Betfred