Once more we revert to profiling despite a few poor results (no hiding from me, not my style) but we have popped up with some big priced winners in the past and even the odd forecast, so fingers crossed.
The November handicap over a mile and a half is the final big betting race of the Flat season and I note that in the last 14 runnings:
No winner priced bigger than 20/1 at the off, and 13 winners priced at 14/1 or shorter (I have to use early odds, so be warned on that one), all finished in the first nine last time out with 13 in the first eight, all aged seven or younger with 13 aged six or below, all officially rated lower than 108, all rated 87 or higher – and 13 rated 89 or above.
All came from the first 11 in the betting with 13 from the first eight, and 13 had raced at least twice this season, while two winners arrived here after last competing in the mile and a quarter handicap at Newbury last month – and both won!
Interestingly, Atherstone Warriorticks all the above boxes having won the Newbury race concerned and runs here, and although he has an extra 9lb for that, I get the feeling the Moore’s have had this in mind for some time. His last win saw him staying on strongly over the mile and a quarter, looking as if the step up in trip may be just what he needs, and with Ashley Lewsi booked to claim 5lb off his back, an each way bets looks the sensible option.
My only concern (other than 22 opponents!) is we haven’t seen a horse win this from the three stall in the last 15 years (or any stall lower than eighth for that matter), and if that bothers you, then the Ralph Beckett pair of Lord Melbourne and Master Binter could be considered, while I will be watching the market like a hawk for any confidence in the Moores’ other runner Miller Spirit with Toby Moore, Gary’s grandson and the son of Ryan Moore, in the saddle.
Daily Sport Recommended Bet 1/2pt Each Way Atherstone Warrior 3.45pm Doncaster 10/1 most bookmakers