Declaration Of War looks cracking value at 5/1 to gun down the “big two” in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood today (3.05).
The race has been billed as the “Duel On The Downs” between Dawn Approach and Toronado, but Aidan O’Brien’s colt has what it takes to upset the party and looks overpriced at the odds on offer.
The four-year-old has always been held in the highest regard, and although well beaten when sent off the 5/4 favourite for the Lockinge after making a winning reappearance, he quickly showed that running to be all wrong when impressively winning the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot.
The son of War Front travelled really well throughout the contest but after closing on the leaders two from home found himself short of room and with nowhere to go when trying to make his move approaching the final furlong.
His rider had to sit and suffer and wait for a gap to appear, and when one did begin to open he squeezed him through and put the race to bed with a devastaing turn of foot.
Although the winning margin over Aljamaaheer was just 3/4 of a length he was value for much more than that and won going away.
He had two of today’s rivals Gregorian and Trade Strom behind in third and fifth respectively, and the winner has since come out and scored in good style in a Group 2 at Sandown.
The fourth home Elusive Kate has also subsequently won back-to-back Group 1 contests at Newmarket and Deauville to give the form a solid look.
The selection was then upped in trip to 1m 2f on his latest start in the Group 1 Coral Eclipse at Sandown and ran a cracker to finish a 2 length runner-up to Al Kazeem.
He again travelled strongly into that contest and looked a real threat two from home, but then hung right when driven approaching the last before keeping on in the final 75 yards without ever threatening to get to the winner.
It was a fine run, but to me it suggested that a mile was his optimum trip and I think today’s test will suit him ideally.
Another plus is that four-year-old also has winning form with cut in the ground, and this race could well set up nicely for him to swoop late and land the spoils as I get the feeling that the two market leaders will be concentrating too much on each other.
There is little doubt that Dawn Approach is a top class miler having won the 2000 Guineas and the St James’ Palace Stakes, but he can be very keen and get lit up early doors and was arguably lucky to beat Toronado last time out when they met at Royal Ascot in a very rough race in which the runner-up got badly hampered at a crucial stage.
Richard Hughes is very bullish that Toronado will turn the tables this time, but I am not so sure as to me Richard Hannon’s colt was beaten fair and square when finishing a 7 1/2 length fourth to him in the Guineas.
I get the feeling that this year’s classic generation may not be the strongest, and if that’s the case then Declaration Of War has all the right attributes to win this.
Daily Sport recommended bet: 3pts win Declaration Of War (5/1 BetVictor, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Stan James – BOG)