10/1 Shallow Bay and Fallon ready to deliver
Shallow Bay looks terrific value at 10/1 to bounce back to form and land the 2.35 at Newbury in the hands of Kieren Fallon.
The gelding had a progressive profile last season finishing a solid third in a handicap at York on his penultimate start before easily opening his account on his final start at Kempton where he won easing down by 2 1/1 lengths from Striding Edge.
He looked the type to improve even further this season, and made a very promising reappearance at Windsor when collared late on and beaten just a neck by Warlu Way.
The form of that race has worked out well, so it’s somewhat disappointing that he has failed to build on that initial effort in his next three starts.
However he has now been eased a few pounds by the handicapper, and having moved from Walter Swinburn to David Pipe it would be no surprise to see him put up a much improved effort this afternoon.
Pipe is the master at finding the key to horses he inherits, and the fact that he has booked the services of Kieren Fallon (who rode him last time) suggests that a big run is expected.
As far as I can ascertain Fallon has not ridden for the stable before, and there is no better jockey to have on your side when the money is down.
If Shallow Bay is back to anywhere near his best he will take all the beating in this, and I would not be surprised to see him supported this morning.
The 10/1 on offer looks too big and I can see him going off at around the 7s mark.
Recommended bet: 2pts each-way Shallow Bay (10/1 betfred – BOG, totesport)
11/2 Mountain Range an each-way steal
Mountain Range looks to have plenty in his favour in the 6.00 at Newbury and looks an each-way steal at 11/2.
John Dunlop’s gelding looked a handicapper to keep on the right side when staying on strongly to win on soft-ground at Sandown in July, and put in a really solid effort on his next outing when runner-up to Anatolian at this track.
A line can be put through his latest run when finishing 9th of 15 to Status Symbol at Newmarket, as he endured a nightmare passage throughout and was not knocked about at all once his chance had gone.
He is allowed to race off exactly the same mark this afternoon as when runner up to Anatolian, and there is little doubt in my mind that he has a few pounds in hand on the assessor.
With the trip and going ideal and an in-form Eddie Ahern in the saddle he looks impossible to keep out of the frame and the one they all have to beat.
Recommended bet: 3pts each-way Mountain Range (11/2 Betfred, Hills – BOG)