South African Racing From Greyville Friday Night – Time For Some Small Stakes Fun!

I’m breaking with tradition for no better reason that the desire for a weekend off and I am going to take my son to the football and make the most of a little leisure time. For that reason, and with the UK all-weather Championships subconsciously affecting my decision-making process, this week I am focussing on the Greyville meeting on Friday evening, or as it is better known TGIF (Thank Greyville It’s Friday).

It is a party night and no mistake with barbecues, bands, music, fashion, and an eight race card to keep the racegoers happy as well but naturally, a winner or two helps to pay for the food and drink even if it is about the best value I know of on a racecourse anywhere in the racing World.

I’m looking back at the statistics once again (what an anorak that makes me), but it has given us some seriously good returns in the past and I can put up with any amount of insults if the betting bank keeps on growing. Because of the way trainers move around to various satellite yards depending on the meetings and what areas they take place in, I have noticed that trainers roll in and out of form on an alarming basis, but if you catch them right there is money to be made as we try to keep one step ahead of the other “mug” punters. I also find that a bit of personal bias (positive or negative) can slip in to the thought process as we all have our own personal favourites for whatever reason (I’m not being sued so that is as far as it goes), but statistics don’t lie and add logic to the equation.

glen kotzen
Glen Kotzen – let’s hope he is still smiling Friday night!

According to my “pen and paper” mathematics the two in form trainers I intended to follow on Friday evening were Gavin van Zyl and Glen Kotzen and luckily for me/us they have a few runners between them at Greyville to get our teeth stuck in to, though as Gavin only has the one he is out of the door for our purposes, and we will focus on his rival instead.

Four horses is a nice even number and makes up a Lucky Fifteen (singles doubles, trebles and an accumulator with percentage bonuses of course), and as long as we play to small stakes as we have in the past we can have a bit of fun with low risk and the possibility, however remote, of some decent profits. Mandarb starts things off in Race One (17:15pm local time) when the three-year-old, one of the youngsters in the field and quite frankly an outsider on everything we have seen so far. Three races have seen him “peak” with a thirteen lengths plus last of twelve at Scottsville over 1950mtrs and if he wins I’ll give up this game but rules are rules and if he does win we will be in profit immediately for the single alone

Fellow Traveller is clearly a more realistic option having won his maiden at Scottsville in July last year and running well enough here next time out when a two and three quarter length sixth to Argo’s Jet in August. I am hoping he needed the run when ninth last month returning from a seven month plus lay-off and if he strips fitter here even top weight may not be enough to stop him as he steps up to 1600mtrs for the first time.

We can disappear for a barbecue and a beer for the next three hours as we await the run of Miss Malbec who is also lumbered with top weight in the 20:45pm over 1000mtrs, and is returning from a three-month sabbatical. Two wins from eight runs is an impressive enough statistic and she could do just as well on her all-weather debut tonight, and down four pounds and dropped in class, I am pretty hopeful of a big run.

Last but not least, we have the brilliantly named Mungo Cherry (the youngsters reading can google “Mungo Jerry” to get the joke), a daughter of Pathfork who has been dropped another three pounds after some below par efforts. She did win her maiden here over course and distance so is clearly quite capable of a big run, and as she seems happier on the polytrack she could yet pull off a surprise here.

Sean’s Suggestions:

Small stakes each way Lucky Fifteen (thirty bets in total):

Mandarb 17:15pm Greyville Friday

Fellow Traveller 17:50pm Greyville Friday

Miss Malbec 20:45pm Greyville Friday

Mungo Cherry 21:15pm Greyville Friday

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *