Japan Cup Preview
When I remember I really have to pinch myself for just how lucky I have been for many years – and today is no exception. Contrary to popular belief I don’t spend all my time quaffing champagne at the track, most of my life is spent in front of a laptop trying to work out the next winner, reading through the form, and talking to various owners and trainers. No sympathy wanted or expected for that as a few times a year a do get away – and this week is no exception as I am writing this from Tokyo for my first ever trip to the Japan Cup, and a chance to see the incredible Equinox, currently rated the best horse in the World and by some margin.
This is my pre-race article, and I will be writing something about race day after the event, but what I am expecting is a huge crowd of over 150,000 racegoers (compare that to 70,000 or so at the Cheltenham Festival or 60,000 at Royal Ascot), and with no offence to anyone in the UK intended, the majority at the track will know their horses and have a deep love of the sport, so this is going to be something very very special.
Looking at the racing and the truth is we don’t have a great deal of European interest (who knows why we don’t send challengers with their amazing prize money), though this morning (Thursday) we did get to see the one and only Iresine strut his stuff on the all-weather track ahead of his Sunday assignment. Hats off to trainer Jean-Pierre Gauvin and connections who give us all hope for the future having picked up the son of Manduro for 6,000 Euros as a yearling back in 2018 and have placed him to win 11 of his 17 starts and over £653,000 in prize money including two Group Ones at Longchamp. He has the speed to win over a mile and a quarter and the stamina for close to two miles, but all his form is on a far softer surface and there is a genuine fear for me at least that he simply won’t handle the faster surface expected for Sunday afternoon. Add in a 36 hour journey to get here after his original plane was cancelled and it looks like things have not gone to plan for the six-year-old, but we will still see history being made regardless. Jockey Marie Velon will become one of the few females to ride in the Japan Cup in its 43rd year (the first was in 1990 or so I am told), and although even I cannot see a European win barring torrential rain between now and race time, I can certainly wish her all the best.
On to the main contenders and it looks to me like a straight match up between Liberty Island and Equinox with a clash of both sex and generations to savour. In the one corner we have this year’s Japanese 1000 Guineas and Oaks winner who added the Group One Shuka Sho to her CV in her prep race last month, but in the other we have the Worlds best racehorse (according to the ratings) in Equinox, the winner of the Dubai Sheema Classic in March in a course record time. He followed that with a win over a mile and three at Hanshin in June and another record breaking performance in the Tenno Sho in late October over a mile and a quarter, but I am loathed to understand those questioning his stamina when you consider he won over further at Nakayama last December, and he has clearly matured and strengthened since then. Bottom line is I am really hoping I get to join the locals in screaming home Equinox who has looked something really special recently, but I am far less confident about his chances than the bookmakers who have him at odds-on to give 4kg to the younger filly, which will take sone doing and prove if he is the World superstar we all hope – or not.