Bay Willow looks likely to get an uncontested lead in the 4.10 Yarmouth, and that makes him look way overpriced at 20/1.
The son of Singspiel was in good form in Meydan back in February, winning a hotly contested handicap by an easy 2 1/2 lengths from Meeriss and then going on to finish a solid third to Emirates Champion in a similar contest.
He has failed to cut any ice in three runs back on these shores, but having started the campaign off a mark of 105 is now down to just 92.
That huge drop in the weights gives him a massive chance from a handicapping perspective, as he is now 6lb lower than when scoring his last victory in this country at Ascot last July.
He stayed on really gamely to score that day, and prior to that had looked a really progressive sort when scoring in a valuable handicap at the Curragh.
There is no doubt that he needs to bounce back to win this, but it’s often the case that horses that have been racing in Dubai take time to regain the form.
If he does still retain his old ability then there is no questioning that he is very well handicapped and well up to winning this.
Another plus is that he is best when racing up with the pace, and should be able to dominate in today’s small field.
Backing him clearly comes with risks attached, but at 20/1 it looks a risk well worth taking.
Recommended bet: 2pts each-way Bay Willow (20/1 Paddy Power – BOG)