8/1 Belinksy the one to beat
Belinsky is a difficult horse to win with but has been knocking on the door all season and looks worth another chance at 8/1 to finally score an overdue success in the opener at Southwell today (12.20)
Mark Campion’s gelding has landed us plenty of each-way money this season, finishing third at Yarmouth two starts
when advised at 10/1 and heavily backed into 6/1 and then again being heavily supported when runner-up at Kempton last time out.
Although those defeats mean that he has now failed to score since May 2010 when trained by Nigel Tinkler, that win did come off a mark of 70 and he is now running off just 60.
That gives him a huge chance from a handicapping perspective, and he has shown enough promise this season to suggest that he is capable of landing a race of this nature.
He also has proven form on Southwell’s fibresand surface, and from a good draw in stall 3 is drawn to attack.
With the favourite Take Cover plenty short enough at 9/4 he looks solid each-way value at the 8s on offer.
Daily Sport recommended bet: 2pts each-way Belinsky (8/1 Hills, Ladbrokes – BOG)
Brio the bet at 7/1
Brio looks to have been found a nice opening in the 12.50 at Southwell and makes plenty of appeal at 7/1.
Alan McCabe’s three-year-old got off the mark in good style in a 7f seller at Leicester last month where he showed good early speed to make virtually all and win by 3 1/2 lengths.
He then went off far too hard when trying to follow up in a claimer here on his latest start but interestingly drops back in trip to 6f this afternoon and looks well treated on his second to Suddenly Susan over course and distance back in August.
The gelding ran off 61 that day and although beaten 3 lengths the form reads well in the context of this race and he has shown gradually improvement since.
He runs off just a 1lb higher mark this afternoon, and from a good draw in stall six could be hard to peg back if settling well at the head of affairs given his proven stamina to stay 7f.
With the vast majority of his opponents being totally exposed, he looks an each-way steal at 7/1.
Daily Sport recommended bet: 2pts each-way Brio (7/1 Ladbrokes – BOG)
Duchess worth a dabble at 16/1
Double Duchess has been badly out of form of late but takes a drop into selling company in the 2.50 at Southwell and looks worth chancing at 16/1.
Paul D’Arcy’s filly has run four times at the track – winning twice over today’s distance and finishing second on another occasion under a 6lb penalty.
Her only poor run came last time out where I expected her to be at the head of affairs from a good draw but for some reason she was not ridden aggressively and failed to get competitive at any stage.
However was rated 66 when runner-up here back in Febrtuary, and is now back down to 60 – the same mark as when she made all and bolted up in a class 6 handicap over course and distance earlier this year.
She is clearly not the easiest horse to train and has her problems, but if she can run up to that form then she would have a major chance now tackling selling company for the first time.
Given that her connections are renowned for landing a touch it will be interesting to see if any money comes for her this morning, but at 16/1 she is overpriced if back on song and looks worth chancing at those odds.
Daily Sport recommended bet: 1pt each-way Double Duchess (16/1 bet365, Ladbrokes – BOG)
*Fancy a flutter on the go? Join the Daily Sport’s mobile casino at http://mcasino.dailysport.co.uk and get a £5 Free sign-up bonus to enjoy sexy poker, slots, roulette, blackjack and virtual greyhounds.