Stoke have a terrific record at home and look value at 6/5 to get the better of Newcastle tonight (8pm KO, Live on Sky Sports 1).
The Potters have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League games at the Britannia Stadium, winning 8 and drawing four.
Tony Pulis’s side have also conceded just five goals in their last 10 league games on their home patch, keeping five clean sheets in the process and not conceding more than one in a game.
Their record against the Magpies, who are still unbeaten in the league this season, is also good as the visitors have not triumphed in any of the last four meetings (drawn two, lost two).
There is no doubt that it is going to be a close game, as Newcastle are unbeaten in their last five games on the road in the Premiership.
But they have not gone six games on their travels without defeat since February 2004, and a visit to “Fortress Britannia” is hardly the idea game to try and equal that record.
Many will ere on the side of caution and go with the draw at 23/10, but I strongly fancy Stoke to edge it and the 6/5 available with Boylesports and Paddy Power looks too big to resist and great value.
I also think that there could be a bit of value to be had in the anytime goal scorer market by backing Peter Crouch at the 21/10 on offer with Paddy Power.
Stoke have scored 71% of their goals from set pieces this season and this match could well be settled in that manner.
Crouch – who has so far scored two in six league appearances – is the ideal target man and looks the type to cause the Newcastle defence plenty of problems.
He is as short as 11/8 to net anytime in the 90 minutes with some firms, and that makes Paddy’s 21/10 look massive.