Lies, Damn Lies, And Statistics Point To A Big Priced Option

Time for the obligatory looks deep in to past performances as we hunt down a decent bet in this competitive sprint, so here we go. Facts from the last 24 runnings (my database):  All winners came home in the first 14 last time out, no winners shorter than 5/2, no three-year-old winners, only one over the age of eight, no winners drawn between four and seven, only one winner carried more than nine stone nine, and only one rated above 108. Using those facts we can remove a grand total (no laughing) of 9 horses, or less than half the field. I have then looked at trainer form for this particular race and I will be taking a risk (to small stakes) on Tone The Barone at huge odds. Trainer Stuart Wiliams has had 10 runners in this race, winning with two and placing with another two which is a mighty fine record, and although the horse may be better on the all-weather, he is potentially well-handicapped here, having won off marks as high as 105 (in March this year at Wolverhampton), yet he runs off just 94 on the grass today. Add a decent high draw in the 19 stall and he looks to have a better chance than his odds imply, though be warned – he needs to transfer his all-weather improvement to the turf to have any chance. 

Daily Sport Recommended Bet 1/2pt Each Way Tone The Barone 3.45pm Epsom 25/1 Bet365, William Hill, and others.

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