The Rest Of The Goodwood Card In Brief – Wednesday

3.00pm Goodwood

Baheer catches the eye at a bigger price after making the running to win eased down on his second start at Newbury and if he tries the same tactics here dropping back a furlong, he won’t prove easy to catch. He might be the one for forecast backers, but Kylian has the form in the book after winning by six lengths in the Listed Dragon Stakes at Sandown last month. Jockey Ryan Moore waited patiently that day for a gap to arrive before powering clear for a six length success and it seems fair to suggest that everything else here needs to find plenty of improvement if they want to challenge him here if he remains at that level.

Kylian to win 9/4 Paddy Power and Betfair

3.35pm Goodwood

Not really the type of competitive event we were all hoping for with Aidan O’Brien’s Paddington trading at odds on as I write as he looks to remain unbeaten for the year after wins in the Irish 2000 Guineas, St James’s Palace Stakes, and Coral Eclipse on his last three starts. He is impossible to oppose but equally difficult to back at those odds, with the classy Inspiral and overpriced French raider Facteur Cheval potential dangers if he has an off day.

Paddington to win 4/9 all bookmakers

4.10pm Goodwood

Tropical Island heads the early market here after her impressive debut success at Ripon, an experience she seems likely to improve from, but in a tricky race to try to call, Harvanna may have her measure. Third on her Catterick debut, she has gone from strength to strength since with wins at York and more recently Yarmouth, and I suspect the race will be run to suit her. She ran on well last time out over the five furlongs suggesting a fast run race on a softer surface will suit her down to the ground, though we do have to assume she gets the clear run needed to mount a late challenge.

Harvanna each way 7/1

4.45pm Goodwood

We have seen winners at odds of 22/1 and 12/1 in te last four years so all things seem possible, though Ralph Becket has won two of the last three renewals and has a solid chance once again with La Isla Mujeres who is looking for her hat-trick after successes at Kempton and Salisbury, though her six-length success last month annoyed the handicapper who has put her up 11lb! She is lightly raced (that was only her fourth start), and she has proved she handles cut in the ground unlike some, making her my idea of the likeliest winner, if nothing else, with Queen Regent the one that worries me the most.

La Isla Mujeres each way 4/1 most bookmakers

5.20pm Goodwood

Just to make sure any on-course punters leave the track penniless we have another tricky handicap to end the card, this time over seven furlongs for three-year-olds and older. Looking at the stats of the past winners and all of them came home in the first six on their last start, all were priced shorter than 20/1 at the off, 10 of the 11 were six or younger, all were rated 82 or higher, all came from the front nine in the betting, and all had run in the last 60 days. Using those facts we can, in theory, get rid of 10 of the 17 – not ideal, but it’s a good start! Of those left, I have then looked to see who has won or placed on ground with the word soft in it (assuming more rain looking out of my window), and off of this handicap mark or close to it, and then all I am left with is four horses – if only life was that simple! The four remaining if you are interested are Rhoscolyn, Dark Thirty, Classic, and Farasi Lane, with Richard Hannon training two of the quartet. His record in this race is 10 runners for three winners and three places which is pretty impressive, and although I am wary of picking the wrong one of Dark Thirty and Classic, the last named is the bigger price and could go well after winning a shade cleverly last time out. 

Classic each way 12/1 Bet365

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