Why not have a go at one of the most competitive handicaps of the year I thought, and if we find the winner he or she is likely to be at a rewarding price as they currently bet 7/1 the field. Once more into the stats we delve (sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t), and I will use the last 10 years (nine runnings) as my base line.
All 9 of those winners have come out of stalls six or higher, 8 have been priced 20/1 or shorter, 7 finished in the first 7 last time out, all were aged 7 or younger (but none were four or six year olds), all ran in the last 30 days, none raced in the last 7 days, and all were officially rated 88 to 100 inclusive.
Add those together and the field of 19 declared overnight suddenly becomes a shortlist of just two – Bosh and Manila Scouse. Of the remaining pair, Richard Hannon has not won this race in the last 10 years (Bosh), but Tim Easterby has won it twice with Staxton in 2020 and Matimu in 2017 (as well as Pipalong back in 1999 out of interest) and that points to the chances of Manila Scouse.
A very easy winner last time out at Chepstow, he has been put up 7lb for that and will need a career best to score here, but the stats point to his each way chances, and who am I to argue?
Daily Sport Recommended Bet 1/2pt Each way Manila Scouse 3.20pm Ripon 12/1 most bookmakers