Arsenal have a terrific home record against Man City and look worth a punt at 21/10 to beat the Citizens in their Carling Cup quarter final clash at the Emirates tonight (8pm KO, Live on Sky Sports 2).
Roberto Mancini’s men have won none of their last 28 visits to the Emirates in the League and Cup, losing 20 times, and have only managed to find the back of the net on 10 occasions during that period.
The Gunners, who have reached this stage of the competition for a record ninth consecutive season, have won 13 and lost none of their last 14 Carling Cup home games since losing 0-1 to Middlesbrough in 2004.
They have also lost just one of their last 58 midweek games on their own patch in all competitions and face a side whose priorities surely lie in trying to secure Premiership and Champions League honours.
OK, they were disappointing in their 1-1 draw with Fulham in their latest game, but before that the Wenger boys had been on a roll and had looked very good in beating Chelsea 5-3 at Stamford Bridge.
The Arsenal boss has hinted he will rest players suffering from fatigue or minor injuries, such as Robin van Persie, Theo Walcott, Aaron Ramsey and Abou Diaby, but City are likely to do the same and will also be without the suspended pair of Mario Balotelli and Gareth Barry.
The bookies favour City and make them clear favourites at 11/8 to come on on top despite the stats which suggest they will struggle. I think they have got it wrong in underestimating Arsenal’s chances and Ladbroke’s standout offer of 21/10 should be snapped up.