Many are predicting an easy victory for Man City when they travel to Spain tonight take on Villarreal in the second leg of their Champions League tie (7.45pm KO, Live on ITV1), but I think they may well struggle to secure a win and the draw looks worth a punt at 3/1.
City celebrated their first ever win in the competition by with a 2-1 win over their opponents at the Etihad Stadium, and the Premiership table toppers are a top priced 7/10 to keep up their incredible run with another win this evening.
However the stats reveal that the Citizens haven’t won any of their last five away games in European competition (two draws, three losses), and they have also failed to score in the last three of those.
In fact thye haven’t managed to find the net away from home in 283 minutes of European football, so they are no odds-on shots in my book despite the fact they are scoring for fun in the Premiership.
Villarreal are no mugs and a better than their recent form suggests. They have been struggling to score and their hitman Giuseppe Rossi has now gone over nine hours without finding the net.
However almost a quarter of their Champions League games have ended as goaless draws, and they have also managed six draws in the nine times they have faced English opposition in the competition.
The 2006 semi-finalists, who are still without a single point in the table, will be desperate to put that right in front of their home fans.
They look sure to play it very tight and could well frustrate City from the off.
I can see them grinding it out a share of the spoils, and the 3/1 on offer with Betfred and Sky bet about the draw looks a bit of value.